Six weeks ago, the answer to “should I switch energy supplier?” was shaping up to be a fairly relaxed “yes, probably.” Fixed deals had come back, some were priced below the cap, and the market had finally settled after years of post-crisis turbulence. Then the war in Iran started, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and most of that got torn up in the space of about ten days.
So here we are. If you’re trying to work out whether to switch energy supplier in 2026, the honest truth is it’s no longer a simple yes. It’s a decision about risk, timing, and how long you think the current crisis is going to last. This piece walks through where prices actually are right now, what the war has done to gas and electricity differently, what the forecasts are saying, and how to think about whether fixing, staying, or doing nothing is the right move for your situation.
There’s no single right answer, and anyone telling you otherwise is selling something.
Where prices stand right now
The April 2026 price cap is £1,641 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. That’s down about 7% from January, a reduction driven almost entirely by the government shifting green levies off bills in the 2025 Autumn Budget. For the three months from April to June, if you’re on a standard variable tariff, that’s what your rates track.
Crucially, this cap was locked in on 25 February, three days before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. None of the wholesale price increases since then are in the April cap. They’re all waiting for the July review.
The national average unit rates for April to June on the standard variable tariff, paying by Direct Debit, are roughly:
- Electricity: 24.67p per kWh, with a standing charge of 57.21p per day
- Gas: 5.74p per kWh, with a standing charge of 29.09p per day
Your actual rates vary by region and payment method, and those standing charges add up to roughly £315 a year before you’ve used a single unit of anything. If you’re a low-use household, those standing charges are a bigger proportion of your bill than you might realise.
What the war has done to gas prices
The Iran crisis has hit gas harder than electricity, and the chain of events is worth understanding because it explains everything else on this page.
The US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February. By early March, Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG normally flows. On 2 March, Iranian drones hit QatarEnergy’s main LNG facilities. On 4 March, Qatar declared force majeure, essentially cancelling deliveries to its customers without penalty. Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. Roughly 17% of its LNG capacity is now expected to be offline for three to five years.
The effect on UK wholesale gas was immediate and brutal. The Office for Budget Responsibility has stated wholesale gas prices rose by about 50% between late February and late March. Other analysts put it higher. The April gas contract on NBP (the UK wholesale benchmark) settled around 136p per therm at the end of March, up from roughly 78p in late February. That’s a rise of around 75% in a month.
Europe is particularly exposed. Gas storage ended winter at just 28%, with Germany at 22%, the lowest levels since the 2022 energy crisis. The summer is when Europe normally refills its storage ahead of winter. With Qatari LNG offline and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed despite a ceasefire declared on 8 April, that refill is going to be difficult. Several forecasters now expect gas prices to stay elevated well into 2027.
What the war has done to electricity prices
This is the bit that confuses people. The UK doesn’t import much electricity from the Middle East. So why are electricity prices going up?
Because of how the UK power market works, electricity prices are set at the margin by whichever type of generation is needed to meet demand. For most hours of most days, that marginal unit is gas-fired power. So when wholesale gas prices rise, UK wholesale electricity prices rise with them. It’s a direct mechanical link, and it’s the reason a crisis on the other side of the planet pushes up the cost of running your washing machine.
Wholesale power prices for Summer 2026 delivery are sitting around £102 per MWh, elevated but not as dramatically as gas. The unusual thing Cornwall Insight has flagged is that in its July price cap forecast, gas makes up £936 of a typical household’s annual cost and electricity £924. Gas costing more than electricity in an annual bill is rare and happens mostly because the gas spike has been sharper than the electricity one. Normally it’s the other way around.
There’s been political noise about “decoupling” electricity from gas to stop this happening in future, with the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband publicly backing the idea. That’s a long-term structural change, not something that helps you this summer.
What’s coming in July, October and beyond
Ofgem will announce the July price cap by 27 May, to take effect on 1 July. At the time of writing, forecasts cluster around:
| Forecaster | July 2026 cap prediction | Change from April |
|---|---|---|
| Cornwall Insight (9 April update) | £1,861 | +£220, or +13% |
| EDF (mid-April) | £1,937 | +£296, or +18% |
| E.ON Next | £1,955 | +£314, or +19% |
| Cornwall Insight (earlier, 19 March) | £1,973 | +£332, or +20% |
Cornwall Insight’s forecast has come down over recent weeks as markets have partially stabilised. If a meaningful Hormuz reopening happens before mid-May, the final July cap could come in lower than these numbers. If the crisis drags on, it could come in higher.
Beyond July, the picture gets murkier. Most forecasters expect further increases in October and into early 2027 if the supply situation doesn’t improve, driven largely by the European storage refill challenge and the structural loss of Qatari LNG capacity. Nobody’s forecast beyond about six months ahead is reliable right now.
For context, the 2022 crisis saw wholesale gas prices rise roughly five-fold at their peak. The current spike is significantly smaller than that. We are not, so far, in 2022 territory. But we’re also not in the calm post-crisis market that existed in February.
What this means for fixed deals
Fixed tariffs have had a rough six weeks. Uswitch reported dozens of instances of suppliers pulling or repricing fixed tariffs in the first weeks of the crisis. British Gas confirmed in early March that it had increased its fixed prices in response. Several suppliers have stopped offering new fixed tariffs entirely while the market finds a floor.
The fixes still on offer have mostly been repriced upwards. A month ago you could find 12-month dual-fuel fixes below the cap. Today, most of what’s available sits at or slightly above the current cap, with the most competitive deals clustering within 5% of cap rates rather than below them.
The calculation on fixing is:
- A fix is worth locking in if its price is lower than where the cap actually ends up over the next 12 months.
- Given July alone is expected to rise 13–19%, a fix priced close to (or even slightly above) the current April cap is probably still cheaper than the blended cap over a full year.
- But if the crisis resolves fast and gas prices fall back quickly, today’s fixes could look expensive by autumn.
The honest framing is that fixing now is insurance. You pay a modest premium over the current cap for protection against a bigger rise later. Whether that’s worth it depends on how much risk you can carry and how much you’d rather have certainty.
Decision framework by situation
The best answer depends heavily on what tariff you’re on now. Here’s how to think about it.
If you’re on the price cap (standard variable tariff)
You’re protected at current rates until 30 June. You’ll pay the April cap until then regardless of what happens in the wholesale market. From 1 July, your bills will jump to whatever the new cap is.
If you can find a fix priced within about 5% of the current cap (roughly £1,641 to £1,725 for typical use), that’s probably worth serious consideration. It gives you protection against a July rise that most forecasters see landing somewhere between £1,861 and £1,975.
If the fixes available to you are significantly more expensive than the current cap, the decision gets harder. You’re essentially betting on how long the crisis lasts. Staying on the cap and riding it out is defensible. Just don’t sleepwalk into July without looking.
If you’re in a fixed deal that’s ending soon
This is urgent. When your fix ends, you’ll default onto the standard variable tariff, which means you’ll be on the July cap from day one. If there are less than 49 days left on your contract, you can switch now without paying an exit fee.
Most people in this position should be actively shopping for a replacement fix well before their current deal ends. The fixes on offer will very likely be more expensive than the one you’re leaving. That’s an uncomfortable truth of the current market. But they’ll probably still be cheaper than the standard variable rate from July onward.
If you’re already in a fixed deal that runs past July
Stay put. You’re in the best position of anyone. Your rates are locked at pre-crisis levels and the supplier is absorbing the wholesale rise, not you. Don’t switch early and pay an exit fee to move to something more expensive. The maths almost never works.
The exception: check whether your fix automatically rolls onto the variable rate when it ends, and set a calendar reminder for a month or two before that date. You don’t want to fall off the end of a good fix into the cap without noticing.
If you’re on a tracker or time-of-use tariff
Trackers follow wholesale prices, so if you’re on one you’re already feeling the crisis. Octopus has publicly advised its Tracker and Agile customers to weigh up whether to switch to Flexible Octopus (their price-cap tariff) for stability, while noting that historically Tracker customers who stayed the course have come out ahead. The right call depends on how long you think the crisis lasts and how much short-term pain you can tolerate.
Bear in mind Octopus Tracker has a 9-month lockout if you leave and want to rejoin, so leaving now is a decision you’re making for at least most of a year.
If you’re on a prepayment meter
The prepayment price cap is £1,597 for April to June, slightly lower than the Direct Debit cap. It’s covered by the same quarterly review process and will move in line with the main cap in July. The range of fixed deals available to prepayment customers is narrower, but there are options. If you’re not in debt, you may also be able to switch to a credit meter, which opens up the full fixed deal market. Worth asking.
Should I switch energy suppliers now?
For most households on the price cap, a modest-premium fix looks like sensible insurance against a July rise that, on current forecasts, is almost certain to happen. The amount of that rise is the only real variable, and the range of forecasts (13–19%) is wide enough that locking in certainty is worth paying a small premium.
For households already on a decent fix running past July, the right move is to do nothing.
For everyone in between, the honest answer is that this is a judgment call on how long the Iran crisis lasts, and nobody’s reliable forecast extends more than a few months out. The mechanics of switching haven’t changed and won’t, but the maths around whether to do it has shifted significantly since February. Whatever you decide, decide it knowing what you’re deciding between, not by default.
If you’ve worked through this and decided switching makes sense for you, our guide on how to switch energy supplier walks through the process itself. For the broader picture on cutting your bills beyond just the tariff decision, see how to slash your energy bills. And if you want to understand the tariff types themselves in more detail before deciding, our energy tariff guide covers everything you need to know.
Forecasts and tariff availability are moving faster than usual right now. Whatever you read here about specific numbers is accurate as of mid-April 2026, but these are the kinds of figures you’d want to double-check the day you make the decision, not the week after.
